Poll Released Today by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates Shows Hahn with Strong Five Point Lead Over Bowen

LOS ANGELES- The Janice Hahn for Congress campaign today released the following poll which shows Hahn with a five point lead over Debra Bowen in a multi-candidate race.

Hahn, who was the first Democratic candidate to announce her candidacy, has been a strong front-runner in the race to fill Congresswoman Jane Harman’s seat. In just two short weeks, Hahn has secured endorsements from national, state and local leaders. Some of Hahn’s major supporters include US Senator Dianne Feinstein, California Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez, newly elected California State Senator Ted Lieu, as well as several local South Bay elected leaders. Hahn has also earned the support of well over a dozen labor groups, as well as several local environmentalists and community leaders.

In addition to Hahn’s growing list of supporters, she been gaining momentum daily and has hit the ground running, attending several local community events in the 36th district every day.

Earlier today, the firm Public Policy Polling , released a poll paid for by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showing Bowen up four points in a head-to-head matchup, however, the reality of the race is such, that there are several candidates in the race- not just two- and the list of candidates is growing.

Moreover, this poll is not reliable given the fact that it was conducted by a robo call, rather than by an actual researcher.

Below is a polling memo from Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates:

February 22, 2011

TO:        Interested Parties

FR:         Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates

RE:         Congressional District 36 Survey Results


According to our recent live telephone survey of 400 likely special election voters[1], Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn begins the special election campaign for the 36th Congressional District with a five-point lead in a ballot test including five other candidates who have either declared or publicly indicated interest in running, in this special election and who have all either run for this office before or are current elected officials, including California Secretary of State Debra Bowen.  Hahn’s lead is larger than the survey’s margin of error.

Janice Hahn’s lead is consistent across the gender and age divides of the electorate.  She leads among men and women and among voters under the age of 50 and those who are older than 50.  She also leads among the key constituency groups in this election including: Democrats, Decline-to-State registrants, non-White voters, Union member households and among critical permanent absentee voters.

Senator Dianne Feinstein’s endorsement will surely help Hahn increase her margins among these same key constituency groups.  Feinstein is viewed favorably by more than 60 percent of voters district wide, with particularly high favorability ratings from Democrats (85%), Decline-to-State registrants (69%), non-Whites (78%), Union members (75%) and Permanent Absentee Voters (62%).

Hahn leads her home, the City of Los Angeles, which is the largest geographic component of the district, with nearly 40 percent of the electorate.  It is especially noteworthy that Hahn, in addition to holding a sizable lead in her own L.A. Council District, also leads in L.A. Council District 11, where Bowen previously lived while serving as a State Legislator.  Bowen’s years in Sacramento have clearly taken a toll on her local political profile.  Half of voters district wide said they did not know enough about Bowen to give her a personal rating of favorable or unfavorable even though she represented most of the Congressional District as a State Legislator for 14 years.

In this short campaign, Hahn’s initial lead in the vote and advantages in name recognition and favorability as identified in this survey, are significant factors in her favor, as are the spate of important early endorsements from Senator Feinstein, Laker legend Magic Johnson, L.A.-based Assembly Speaker John Perez, former State Senator Ted Lieu and a host of local elected officials and community leaders from each City in the district, as well as her near unanimous support from local labor unions

[1] Between February 13 and 14, 2011, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates conducted 400 telephone interviews among voters who are likely to participate in the April 2011 special election in California’s 36th Congressional District based on their past voter history.  The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level.